European Coil Market Braces for Impact as CBAM-Driven Price Hikes Meet Buyer Resistance
January 26, 2026 – The European steel market is in a state of flux, grappling with the ramifications of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and aggressive price increases from major producers like ArcelorMittal. While mills cite CBAM’s implementation as a catalyst for these upward adjustments, the market’s readiness to absorb such rapid escalation remains a significant concern.
The initial weeks of 2026 have seen a noticeable shift in pricing strategy. After a period of gradual increases, steel mills are now pushing for sharper rises, a move that is meeting considerable resistance from downstream processors. “Steel mills’ attempts to raise prices more quickly are likely to meet resistance from processors who are not yet able to pass on these costs,” explains a Dutch manager, highlighting the immediate pressure on fabricators and manufacturers.
The pricing landscape has become particularly complex when considering imports. With hot rolled coil (HRC) import offers from Turkey and the Middle East hovering around €540/tonne CFR Antwerp, the addition of CBAM costs significantly erodes any potential arbitrage, making these imports less attractive compared to domestic HRC, which was trading at €630-650/t ex-works until recently. ArcelorMittal’s new HRC offers, now at €700/t, further widen this gap.
The most striking increases are observed in cold rolled coil (CRC) and hot-dip galvanized (HDG) coil. CRC offers have surged to €830/t, with HDG close behind at €820/t. These figures represent a substantial jump from previous quotes of €750/t for CRC and €760/t for HDG in the Netherlands. Intriguingly, CRC prices have now surpassed HDG, a shift attributed by a German observer to domestic mills prioritizing HRC and HDG production, leading to a scarcity of CRC. This scarcity, coupled with anticipated higher duties from an ongoing anti-dumping investigation into CRC, provides mills with justification for an additional premium on cold-rolled material.
The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the market can adapt to these new pricing realities or if the disconnect between mill ambitions and buyer capacity will lead to a slowdown in activity. The delicate balance between covering CBAM costs and maintaining market liquidity is now the central challenge for the European steel industry.
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